Do Poll Numbers Reflect That Obama's Message Has "Legs?"
According to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, a White women and a Black man are basically tied for the Democratic presidential nomination.
This is the first time that New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton hasn't clearly led the field. Illinois Senator Barack Obama bests Clinton 30%-29%, if the contest includes Al Gore. Clinton bests Obama 37%-36%, if the race doesn't include the "Save The Planet" former vice-president.
As for former South Carolina Senator John Edwards, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, or the other no-name candidates - who cares!
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The survey of 310 Democrats and 160 independents who "lean" Democratic, taken Friday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, calls the USA TODAY poll "completely out of sync" with other surveys. "National polls are not all that relevant in a process that is largely sequential" through early contests in a series of particular states, says David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist.Even so, Axelrod adds, "This poll is consistent with what we see on the ground" as increasingly huge crowds show up for Obama's appearances. He says it also undercuts the argument Clinton strategists have tried to make that "she's an (unconquerable) Juggernaut."
Among Democrats alone, Clinton leads Obama by 5 points, 34%-29%. That's much closer than the USA TODAY Poll taken in mid-May, when she led by 17 points. Among independents, Obama leads by 9 points, 31%-22%.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken last Tuesday through Friday gave Clinton a 12-point lead. Go figure!
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