Where The White Folks At
America's population is expected to soar to 438 million by 2050, with Latinos tripling their numbers, The latest projections by the Pew Research Center are higher than government estimates to date and paint a portrait of an America dramatically different from today's.
The projected growth in the U.S. population — 303 million today — will be driven primarily by immigration among all groups except the elderly. Whites are expected to see their numbers drop an astounding 20%. Check out all the numbers under the hood.
NATION'S CHANGING MAKEUP
How components of the U.S. population are projected to change by 2050:
Racial/ethnic groups
2005 versus 2050
Foreign-born
12% in 2005 / 19% in 2050
White*
67% in 2005 / 47% in 2050
Hispanic
14% in 2005 / 29% in 2050
Black*
13% in 2005 / 13% in 2050
Asian*
5% in 2005 / 9% in 2050
Note: *=Non-HispanicAmerican Indian/Alaska Native not included
Even if immigration is limited, Hispanics' share of the population will increase because they have higher birth rates than the overall population. That's largely because Hispanic immigrants are younger than the nation's aging baby boom population. By 2030, all 79 million boomers will be at least 65 and the elderly will grow faster than any other age group. [USA Today]
Republicans Court Hispanics
John McCain's "McCain-Kennedy" bill, which was defeated last year, would have put 12 million illegal immigrants on the path to legal status. On the campaign trail, Hispanic voters have heard the presidential candidate declare illegal immigrants "are God's children, as well." He called for "love and compassion" when lambasted on illegal immigration at town-hall meetings.Such views have provided a possible opportunity for the Republican Party to win back Hispanic voters. Hispanics constitute the fastest-growing demographic group in the U.S. The Latino vote could be decisive in large, Hispanic-heavy states like California and Texas, as well as states where Latinos are a fast-growing minority, such as Pennsylvania and Colorado.
Since the 2004 election, when President Bush garnered solid Latino support, the Republican Party has become less attractive to Hispanics.McCain could be the exception: In exit polls from the recent Florida primary, Cuban-Americans and other Hispanics favored the Arizona senator 54% to 14% over Mitt Romney.
GOP LOSING THEIR RHYTHM ON THE LATINO DANCE FLOOR
But Mr. McCain may face an obstacle in courting Hispanics. Having been blasted by Republican opponents and prominent conservative radio-talk-show hosts for sponsoring the immigration bill, Mr. McCain recently began to emphasize border security over an immigration overhaul. He may yet shift gears now that Mr. Romney, who with Mike Huckabee had shared the blessing of Republican conservatives, has pulled out of the race."Changing rhetoric on immigration to attract conservative voters...could come back to hurt him in a general election with Latinos," says Matt Barreto, a political-science professor at the University of Washington. "They will be asking, 'Who is the real John McCain?' It's a typical dilemma for candidates."
In an address to the Conservative Political Action Conference on Thursday, Mr. McCain made border security a clear priority. "I accept that and have I have pledged that it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first...and only after we achieved widespread consensus that our borders are secure, would we address other aspects of the problem in a way that defends the rule of law and does not encourage another wave of illegal immigration," he said. [Wall Street Journal]