HELP ME, HELP YOU!!!
Barack Obama is on the brink of Democratic nomination without, some charge, confronting head-on questions about his general-election hurdles.
In fact, the Democratic race has not been especially rough by historical standards. What’s more, conversations with Democrats who speak to the Clintons make plain that their public comments are only the palest version of what they really believe:
That if Obama is the nominee a likely Democratic victory would turn to a near-certain defeat.
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Is this why Hillary can't or won't see the long odds against her, put her own ambitions aside, and gracefully embrace Barack Obama as the inevitable Democratic nominee?
Here is why: the New York senator and Bill Clinton both devoutly believe that Obama’s likely victory is a disaster-in-waiting. Naive Democrats just don’t see it. And a timid, pro-Obama press corps have decided not to tell the story.
A lot of coverage of the Clinton campaign supposes them to be in kitchen-sink mode — hurling every pot and pan, no matter the damage this might do to Obama as the likely Democratic nominee in the fall.
Far from a no-holds-barred affair, the Democratic contest has been an exercise in self-censorship.
Rip off the duct tape, and here is what they would say: Obama has serious problems with Jewish voters (goodbye Florida), working-class whites (goodbye Ohio) and Hispanics (goodbye, New Mexico.)
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Republicans will also ruthlessly exploit openings that Clinton — in the genteel confines of an intraparty contest — never could. Top targets: Obama’s radioactive personal associations, his liberal ideology, his exotic life story, his coolly academic and elitist style.
This view has been an article of faith among Clinton advisers for months, but it got powerful new affirmation last week with Obama’s clumsy ruminations about why “bitter” small-town voters turn to guns and God.
Skepticism about Obama’s general election prospects extends beyond Clinton backers. We spoke to unaffiliated Democratic lawmakers, veteran lobbyists and campaign operatives who believe the rush of enthusiasm for Obama’s charisma and fresh face has inhibited sober appraisals of his potential weaknesses.
The first is based on the campaign so far. If the voting patterns evident in nomination voting in many states continued into the fall, they would leave Obama vulnerable if McCain could approximate the traditional GOP performance in key states.
The second is based on fear about the campaign ahead.
Stories about Obama’s Chicago associations with 1960s radicals Bernardine Dohrn and William Ayers landed with barely a ripple. So, too, did questions about whether he once backed a total ban on handguns (he says no, but in a 1996 state legislative race, his campaign filled out a questionaire saying yes.) Obama’s graceful handling of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy may have turned that into a net positive.
But all this was in a Democratic contest. What about about when Obama’s running against a Republican?
Let’s take the first point: Obama’s electoral coalition. His impressive success to date comes predominately from strong support among upscale, college-educated whites and overwhelming support from African-Americans. Apparently that's not enough!
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